NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Cybertruck sales are picking up: Could the polarizing EV push Tesla's market share higher?

Love the design or NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerhate it, seeing a Tesla Cybertruck on the road is like spotting a rare bird in the wild. But if CEO Elon Musk has his way, spotting one won’t be so rare soon as sales of the polarizing EV truck have ramped up.

The auto industry has seen average transaction prices for new vehicles drop in the last eight months, on a year-over-year basis. But since March, Tesla has seen an increase. Could this be due to the whopping average sales price of $108,667 for the Cybertruck as reported by Kelley Blue Book?

Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights for Cox Automotive, the owner of Kelley Blue Book, thinks so: “The key factor with the Cybertruck isn’t just the high transaction price, it’s also the volume of sales. An increase in Cybertruck sales will drive prices higher for both Tesla and the EV market.”

Could Tesla's Cybertruck be the reason for Tesla's rebound?

“In May, Tesla sold nearly 3,000 Cybertrucks at an average price exceeding $100,000. This surge in sales contributed to a 3.1% increase in Tesla’s overall prices from April. Definitely, the Cybertruck is influencing that,”  Valdez Streaty said.

“Driven by Tesla, EV prices have shown volatility on a month-to-month basis," Valdez Streaty said. "After hitting a low in March, they increased in April and May. Tesla’s average transaction price has risen by over 10% since January, while the overall EV industry average transaction price remained fairly flat since the beginning of the year.”

And the price increase has not deterred buyers as pre-orders of Cybertruck continue to be filled. According to estimates from Cox Automotive, Tesla has sold more than 8,000 Cybertrucks since January.

"When considering Cybertruck estimates, it’s crucial to highlight that we’re still in the early stages. Depending on Tesla’s production ramp-up and consumer demand, sales figures could fluctuate," said Valdez Streaty.

Tesla is still the biggest player in the EV market

Given Tesla’s substantial share of the electric vehicle market, any action they take has a significant impact. Tesla accounts for 51.3% of all EVs sold in the U.S., but that dominance has been eroding.

“In Q1, Tesla experienced a 13% year-over-year decline in sales,” said Valdez Streaty. "That decline impacted the overall EV market to only grow by 2.6%.”

Tesla could get a much bigger boost from Cybertruck sales than it did in Q1. The company already sold an estimated 5,000 in April and May.

Could the Cybertruck be the second highest-selling EV truck in 2024?

The Ford F-150 Lightning is the highest-selling EV truck in America. Results for Q2 won't be out until July, but in Q1, the Cybertruck gained on the current No. 2: Rivian R1T.

"While the electric truck market isn’t overcrowded, the Cybertruck faces healthy competition," said Valdez Streaty. "The F150 Lightning and Rivian R1T have been in the market longer and currently lead in sales as of Q1. It’s still early in the race, and production and consumer demand will ultimately determine who gains market share."

Tesla, founded in 2003 by Musk, sold its first Roadster in 2008 and Model S in 2012. Its sales have continued to jump annually since 2011.

Contributing: George Petras USA TODAY